Complexity & Risk in the energy sector, 26th October 2016

riskAnnual  networking  meeting  of  the  IOP  Nonlinear  and   Complex  Physics  Group       

Energy security plays an essential role both in alleviating poverty in developing countries and in maintaining growth and prosperity in the developed world. Yet the national and global infrastructures that deliver energy are changing rapidly in the face of new and unprecedented challenges. The biggest of these stem from the need to meet ever-increasing global demand for energy services whilst simultaneously reducing CO2 emissions caused by burning fossil fuels. Responding to these challenges will likely involve increased deployment of renewables in the energy mix, perhaps combined with a growing reliance on transported natural gas, nuclear energy and carbon capture technologies. The risks to energy security associated with this new energy landscape will need to be understood from a number of perspectives, ranging from the effects of policy and regulation on energy price and availability to the impact of weather and climate change on energy supply and demand.

The aim of this free event was to bring together participants with an interest in understanding and modelling risks in the energy sector. There was a focus on how Integrated Assessment models and Energy Systems models can be used to understand risk.

The full programme can be found here: Programme

Speakers have kindly shared their slides:

Hannah Bloomfield, Reading: “The impact of climate variability on the GB power system” – Slides

Oluwamayowa Amusat, UCL: “Standalone renewable energy systems: inter-year variability in systems sizing” – Slides

Simon Tindeman, Imperial: “Managing risks in a bottom-up electricity system” – Slides

Paul Balcombe, Imperial: “Distribution of methane and CO2 emissions from the natural gas supply chain” – Slides

Ellen Webborn, Warwick: “Exploring the risk of synchronisation of distributed demand-side response resources” – Slides

Steven Steer et al, Cambridge “Power station design methods applied to commercialising novel nuclear plant” – Slides

Nick Watkins, Warwick: “On bunched black swans and return times in climate and other time series” – Slides